市況研究社

粗粒穀物の海上運賃 2007

Ocean Freight Rate Estimates 2007

日付    米国ガルフ-日本   米太平洋北西岸(PNW)-日本

Baltic Shipping Market Information は、12/25-1/1まで発表休止。
12/24        109㌦24㌣       57㌦99㌣

12/21        110㌦34㌣       58㌦90㌣
12/20        112㌦24㌣       60㌦59㌣
12/19        115㌦01㌣       62㌦66㌣
12/18        116㌦87㌣       63㌦80㌣
12/17        116㌦39㌣       64㌦27㌣

12/14        117㌦05㌣       64㌦82㌣
12/13        117㌦76㌣       65㌦35㌣
12/12        117㌦85㌣       65㌦41㌣
12/11        118㌦21㌣       66㌦31㌣
12/10        118㌦43㌣       67㌦85㌣

12/07        118㌦50㌣       68㌦97㌣
12/06        118㌦64㌣       69㌦96㌣
12/05        119㌦31㌣       71㌦36㌣
12/04        119㌦89㌣       72㌦14㌣
12/03        119㌦61㌣       72㌦03㌣

11/30        119㌦15㌣       71㌦33㌣
11/29        117㌦97㌣       70㌦29㌣
11/28        117㌦00㌣       69㌦68㌣
11/27        116㌦59㌣       69㌦77㌣
11/26        118㌦03㌣       70㌦64㌣

11/23        119㌦79㌣       71㌦79㌣
11/22        121㌦38㌣       72㌦92㌣
11/21        121㌦56㌣       73㌦69㌣
11/20        120㌦88㌣       74㌦63㌣
11/19        119㌦96㌣       75㌦83㌣

11/16        120㌦06㌣       77㌦12㌣
11/15        120㌦82㌣       79㌦32㌣
11/14        122㌦23㌣       82㌦00㌣
11/13        123㌦64㌣       84㌦56㌣
11/12        124㌦30㌣       85㌦95㌣

11/09        124㌦05㌣       86㌦17㌣
11/08        122㌦52㌣       85㌦43㌣
11/07        120㌦89㌣       85㌦23㌣
11/06        120㌦06㌣       85㌦18㌣
11/05        120㌦19㌣       85㌦78㌣

11/02        121㌦15㌣       86㌦82㌣
11/01        120㌦82㌣       86㌦47㌣
10/31        121㌦77㌣       87㌦25㌣
10/30        123㌦10㌣       89㌦16㌣
10/29        122㌦17㌣       89㌦18㌣

10/26        121㌦21㌣       88㌦65㌣
10/25        119㌦67㌣       87㌦49㌣
10/24        119㌦23㌣       86㌦82㌣
10/23        119㌦25㌣       85㌦15㌣
10/22        118㌦55㌣       82㌦46㌣

10/19        118㌦17㌣       81㌦93㌣
10/18        116㌦86㌣       80㌦90㌣
10/17        117㌦80㌣       81㌦22㌣
10/16        118㌦40㌣       81㌦80㌣
10/15        118㌦54㌣       82㌦38㌣

10/12        117㌦82㌣       82㌦10㌣
10/11        114㌦91㌣       79㌦73㌣
10/10        112㌦28㌣       77㌦55㌣
10/09        109㌦18㌣       73㌦80㌣
10/08        107㌦50㌣       72㌦67㌣

10/05        107㌦40㌣       72㌦30㌣
10/04        107㌦50㌣       71㌦97㌣
10/03        106㌦82㌣       71㌦49㌣
10/02        106㌦23㌣       71㌦37㌣
10/01        105㌦90㌣       71㌦25㌣

09/28        105㌦26㌣       71㌦04㌣
09/27        105㌦04㌣       70㌦98㌣
09/26        106㌦00㌣       71㌦81㌣
09/25        105㌦91㌣       72㌦11㌣
09/24        104㌦29㌣       71㌦66㌣

09/21        103㌦16㌣       71㌦39㌣
09/20        100㌦34㌣        69㌦86㌣
09/19       97㌦26㌣       68㌦00㌣
09/18       96㌦87㌣       67㌦51㌣
09/17       97㌦58㌣       67㌦33㌣

09/14       97㌦99㌣       67㌦17㌣
09/13       98㌦75㌣       67㌦29㌣
09/12       99㌦97㌣       67㌦53㌣
09/11        100㌦61㌣        67㌦71㌣
09/10        101㌦61㌣        68㌦10㌣

09/07        101㌦37㌣        67㌦92㌣
09/06        100㌦31㌣        66㌦27㌣
09/05       98㌦50㌣       62㌦95㌣
09/04       97㌦09㌣       58㌦86㌣
09/03       96㌦43㌣       56㌦55㌣

08/31       95㌦81㌣       55㌦75㌣
08/30       94㌦85㌣       54㌦75㌣
08/29       93㌦98㌣       53㌦40㌣
08/28       93㌦40㌣       52㌦21㌣
08/27       Summer Bank Holiday

08/24       92㌦86㌣       51㌦53㌣
08/23       92㌦70㌣       51㌦22㌣
08/22       92㌦32㌣       51㌦10㌣
08/21       93㌦17㌣       51㌦91㌣
08/20       93㌦57㌣       52㌦64㌣

08/17       93㌦89㌣       52㌦71㌣
08/16       93㌦92㌣       52㌦59㌣
08/15       93㌦02㌣       51㌦08㌣
08/14       92㌦32㌣       51㌦08㌣
08/13       91㌦44㌣       50㌦47㌣

08/10       90㌦77㌣       50㌦16㌣
08/09       89㌦40㌣       49㌦73㌣
08/08       89㌦86㌣       49㌦98㌣
08/07       91㌦72㌣       50㌦49㌣
08/06       92㌦98㌣       50㌦85㌣

08/03       93㌦92㌣       51㌦13㌣
08/02       94㌦74㌣       51㌦45㌣
08/01       95㌦60㌣       51㌦80㌣
07/31       95㌦92㌣       51㌦78㌣
07/30       95㌦75㌣       51㌦57㌣

07/27       95㌦37㌣       51㌦20㌣
07/26       94㌦73㌣       50㌦57㌣
07/25       94㌦15㌣       49㌦98㌣
07/24       93㌦73㌣       49㌦95㌣
07/23       93㌦07㌣       50㌦24㌣

07/20       91㌦37㌣       50㌦42㌣
07/19       90㌦05㌣       52㌦49㌣
07/18       89㌦79㌣       53㌦94㌣
07/17       89㌦67㌣       54㌦70㌣
07/16       89㌦25㌣       55㌦22㌣

07/13       89㌦08㌣       55㌦52㌣
07/12       88㌦69㌣       55㌦54㌣
07/11       87㌦43㌣       55㌦04㌣
07/10       85㌦38㌣       54㌦04㌣
07/09       84㌦95㌣       53㌦67㌣

07/06       84㌦96㌣       53㌦34㌣
07/05       84㌦57㌣       52㌦85㌣
07/04       83㌦94㌣       51㌦67㌣
07/03       83㌦12㌣       50㌦06㌣
07/02       82㌦48㌣       49㌦23㌣

06/29       82㌦10㌣       48㌦95㌣
06/28       81㌦48㌣       48㌦19㌣
06/27       81㌦31㌣       47㌦66㌣
06/26       80㌦88㌣       47㌦49㌣
06/25       79㌦84㌣       47㌦07㌣

06/22       78㌦35㌣       45㌦93㌣
06/21       76㌦96㌣       44㌦27㌣
06/20       75㌦30㌣       42㌦87㌣
06/19       73㌦80㌣       41㌦62㌣
06/18       72㌦80㌣       40㌦88㌣

06/15       73㌦03㌣       40㌦89㌣
06/14       73㌦51㌣       41㌦15㌣
06/13       74㌦03㌣       41㌦38㌣
06/12       74㌦49㌣       41㌦59㌣
06/11       75㌦82㌣       41㌦80㌣

06/08       77㌦50㌣       42㌦35㌣
06/07       79㌦22㌣       42㌦82㌣
06/06
06/05       79㌦02㌣       42㌦17㌣
06/04       78㌦43㌣       41㌦32㌣

06/01       78㌦10㌣       40㌦68㌣
05/31       78㌦27㌣       40㌦11㌣
05/30       78㌦68㌣       39㌦92㌣
05/29       79㌦03㌣       40㌦24㌣
05/28       Spring Bank Holiday

05/25       79㌦61㌣       41㌦26㌣
05/24       80㌦05㌣       42㌦58㌣
05/23       80㌦52㌣       44㌦38㌣
05/22       80㌦73㌣       44㌦94㌣
05/21       80㌦86㌣       45㌦26㌣

05/18       80㌦96㌣       45㌦45㌣
05/17       81㌦08㌣       46㌦14㌣
05/16       81㌦29㌣       46㌦80㌣
05/15       81㌦18㌣       47㌦51㌣
05/14       80㌦71㌣       47㌦61㌣

05/11       80㌦14㌣       47㌦61㌣
05/10       79㌦29㌣       47㌦46㌣
05/09       78㌦33㌣       46㌦92㌣
05/08       77㌦32㌣       46㌦36㌣
05/07       May Bank Holiday

05/04       76㌦18㌣       45㌦62㌣
05/03       75㌦60㌣       45㌦35㌣
05/02        --            --
05/01       74㌦77㌣       45㌦26㌣
04/30       74㌦75㌣       45㌦38㌣

04/27        --            --
04/26       74㌦83㌣       45㌦40㌣
04/25       74㌦11㌣       45㌦19㌣
04/24       71㌦79㌣       44㌦55㌣
04/23       72㌦26㌣       45㌦86㌣

04/20       71㌦52㌣       45㌦11㌣
04/19       70㌦53㌣       44㌦48㌣
04/18       69㌦83㌣       43㌦67㌣
04/17       68㌦96㌣       43㌦30㌣
04/16       68㌦75㌣       43㌦25㌣

04/13       70㌦79㌣       45㌦57㌣
04/12       70㌦72㌣       45㌦56㌣
04/11       70㌦25㌣       45㌦49㌣
04/10       69㌦85㌣       45㌦20㌣
04/09       Easter Monday

04/06       Good Friday
04/05       69㌦50㌣       44㌦98㌣
04/04       69㌦49㌣       44㌦94㌣
04/03       69㌦22㌣       44㌦15㌣
04/02       69㌦02㌣       43㌦68㌣

03/30       68㌦64㌣       43㌦63㌣
03/29       68㌦62㌣       43㌦65㌣
03/28       69㌦11㌣       43㌦86㌣
03/27       69㌦74㌣       44㌦08㌣
03/26       69㌦56㌣       44㌦08㌣

03/23       69㌦08㌣       43㌦81㌣
03/22       67㌦80㌣       43㌦56㌣
03/21       67㌦59㌣       43㌦76㌣
03/20       68㌦12㌣       44㌦22㌣
03/19       68㌦54㌣       44㌦31㌣

03/16       68㌦72㌣       44㌦36㌣
03/15       69㌦14㌣       43㌦98㌣
03/14       69㌦74㌣       44㌦02㌣
03/13       70㌦05㌣       44㌦12㌣
03/12       69㌦87㌣       43㌦89㌣

03/09       69㌦50㌣       43㌦47㌣
03/08       69㌦42㌣       43㌦14㌣
03/07       68㌦88㌣       42㌦94㌣
03/06       68㌦27㌣       42㌦22㌣
03/05       67㌦62㌣       41㌦01㌣

03/02       67㌦40㌣       39㌦41㌣
03/01       66㌦69㌣       38㌦46㌣
02/28       65㌦68㌣       37㌦95㌣
02/27       64㌦15㌣       37㌦40㌣
02/26       62㌦77㌣       36㌦83㌣

02/23       61㌦85㌣       36㌦45㌣
02/22       60㌦76㌣       36㌦20㌣
02/21       59㌦83㌣       36㌦01㌣
02/20       58㌦86㌣       35㌦95㌣
02/19       58㌦77㌣       36㌦00㌣

02/16       58㌦86㌣       36㌦06㌣
02/15       58㌦62㌣       35㌦77㌣
02/14       58㌦26㌣       35㌦71㌣
02/13       56㌦84㌣       35㌦34㌣
02/12       55㌦99㌣       35㌦26㌣

02/09       55㌦58㌣       35㌦14㌣
02/08       55㌦20㌣       35㌦29㌣
02/07       54㌦93㌣       35㌦78㌣
02/06       54㌦57㌣       35㌦78㌣
02/05       54㌦11㌣       35㌦51㌣

02/02       53㌦63㌣       35㌦16㌣
02/01       52㌦45㌣       34㌦57㌣
01/31       52㌦18㌣       34㌦09㌣
01/30       52㌦59㌣       34㌦36㌣
01/29       53㌦24㌣       35㌦24㌣

01/26       53㌦44㌣       35㌦66㌣
01/25       54㌦11㌣       36㌦10㌣
01/24       54㌦78㌣       36㌦55㌣
01/23       54㌦97㌣       36㌦83㌣
01/22       55㌦02㌣       36㌦70㌣

01/19       55㌦34㌣       36㌦56㌣
01/18       56㌦17㌣       36㌦71㌣
01/17       56㌦88㌣       37㌦20㌣
01/16       57㌦45㌣       37㌦92㌣
01/15       58㌦14㌣       39㌦05㌣

01/12       58㌦40㌣       39㌦47㌣
01/11       58㌦52㌣       39㌦96㌣
01/10       58㌦31㌣       40㌦31㌣
01/09       57㌦57㌣       40㌦15㌣
01/08       56㌦38㌣       39㌦92㌣

01/05       55㌦55㌣       39㌦76㌣

●アメリカ穀物協会(2007年1月5日)

Ocean Freigt Comments

Due to a drop in trading of the Gulf and PNW indexes to Japan, the Baltic Exchange decided to stop publishing the P2(U.S. Gulf) and P3(PNW) indexes to Japan. As of last Tuesday, they will only publish the P2A and P3A time Charter rates for these routes. This means it will be far more difficult to discern the actual market rate for these and other freight markets. We will be able to watch the daily hire rate for vessels go up and down in dollar terms (34,400/day versus 35,600 per day etc.) for panamax vessels going to Japan, but it will not be easy to calculate these daily rates back into an exact dollar per ton relationship. These are many different variables used to calculate this relationship and different individuals will factor in different voyage lengths and charges when making this calculation and will thereby come to different conclusions as to the exact equivalent in dollars per ton terms. As we go forward, I will do my best to provide "best guess" estimates of where these rates sit, but everyone must be aware that information in this market is becoming sparser and rates structure are a bigger guessing game than ever.

Ocean freigt markets were fairly quiet over the past two holiday weeks. Back on December 22, the Gulf to Japan index was at $53.42 and today it looks close to $53.60. The PNW index was $39.41 and is currently estimated at $39.55. The daily hire index for a panamax in the Atlantic is $36,069, up $1,625 per day from last Tuesday. Daily charter rates in the Pacific are currently $35,672 versus $35,558/day last Tuesday.

I've had three different vessel brokers/traders give me three different estimates on the current physical market for panamax vessel owner/operator was offering to charter his vessel from $51.00/ton to $54.00/ton. I hear that a handymax vessel owner/operator was offering to charter his vessel from the Gulf to Japan for a 4 month period March-June 2007 at $51.50/ton. I'm estimating the current panamax rates from the Gulf to Japan to be close to $54.00/ton and the PNW to Japan at $39.55.

The drop in crude oil prices should help soften freight values, but things will be sketchy for a while. The current Gulf/PNW spread to Japan appears to remain about $14.45/ton or .367/bushel for corn and .39/bushel for soybeans and wheat.

 (U.S. Grains Council

2007年