市況研究社

トウモロコシ相場 2019年3月6日(水)

先週2月28日(木)の韓国飼料協会の購入価格は以下のように伝えられた。

Buyer    韓国飼料協会(釜山)
Seller    CJ International
Origin    worldwide-origins 飼料用黄トウモロコシ
Tonnage   64,000トン
Arrival   2019年8月25日
C&F basis  $198.30/mt CFR
plus $1.25/ton surcharge for additional port unloading

 韓国のトウモロコシ購入価格 8月入着玉の見通し

当社では、これから3~8月について、(ⅰ)米国のトウモロコシ輸出は減速するだろう(ⅱ)ブラジルの2期作トウモロコシは増産になり、ブラジル産トウモロコシの輸出が本格化するだろう(ⅲ)米国のエタノール生産は前年同期を下回って推移するだろう(ⅳ)6~8月は米国内の飼料需要に小麦が使われる可能性が増大するだろうという見通しを描いています。

そういう先安観の見通しを描きながら、その一方で、足もとの米国穀物市場で現物取引のベーシス水準が強いので、目先は<日柄をかけて検証する>つもりで臨んでいく方がよいとお伝えしました。今は物事が必要とする時間をかけて、確かめるべきところでは確かめていくつもりです。

そうしたなか、昨日のニュースの中で、プラッツ社が「韓国の8月入着玉=195ドル」の先安観測を伝えていたので、そのまま転載します。

●プラッツ社の観測

Agriculture 05 Mar 2019 | 13:45 UTC London

Corn buyers in South Korea seek August arrival cargoes at lower prices

London — Corn buyers in South Korea are looking for August arrival cargoes after covering their books for July arrival, sources said, as prices dip.

Buyers are searching to fill August positions, after a conglomerate last week bought through tender an August 25 arrival for 63,000 mt of optional worldwide origin corn at $198.30/mt CFR plus a $1.25/mt premium for second port discharge.

"The South Korean corn market is very competitive," an end user in South Korea said. "Once one group takes a position on a particular month, the rest of us feel the pressure to book at the same level or lower."

The source is waiting for futures prices to fall before booking August arrival cargoes.

The trades in the last few weeks for South Korea delivery are likely to be supplied from Argentina, where offers are competitive as it awaits a 46 million mt crop, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.

Argentine corn is considered superior quality to that from the US and Black Sea ports.

However, Brazil is set to enter the market in July with a 95 million mt crop, according to forecasts by Agroconsult, a Brazilian Agribusiness consultancy. This could result in Brazilian product also traveling to South Korea.

The large crops are weighing on the market further forward. Recent trades showed an inverse of $4-6/mt between June-July versus August arrival cargoes.

As a result, any further tenders into South Korea for August arrival are expected to be at lower values versus previous tenders.

Buyers in South Korea are now targeting August arrival cargoes at mid $190s/mt CFR.

South Korea is to import 10.3 million mt of corn in the year July 1, 2018 to June 30, 2019, according to US Department of Agriculture forecasts.